Threat Timeline: Tracking Progress Toward Q-Day

Current State of the Race

The gap between quantum computing capability and cryptographic vulnerability is narrowing. Here’s where we stand as of late 2025:

Metric	Current Status	CRQC Threshold
Physical Qubits (Leading Systems)	1,000–1,400	<1 million needed
Logical Qubits Demonstrated	~12–50	~1,400 needed for RSA-2048
Best Two-Qubit Gate Fidelity	99.9%	99.99%+ for fault tolerance
Cryptocurrencies with Mainnet PQC	1 (QRL)	Majority of market cap
Consensus Q-Day Estimate	2030–2035	—

Translation: We’re at roughly 1–4% of the logical qubits needed to break cryptocurrency cryptography. At current progress rates, industry roadmaps project fault-tolerant quantum computers by 2029–2030. Meanwhile, only 1 of 49 tracked cryptocurrencies have strong quantum resistance.

Major Milestones: 2019–2025

The quantum computing landscape has transformed dramatically in recent years. These milestones mark the acceleration toward cryptographically relevant quantum computers:

Date	Milestone
Oct 2019	Google Claims Quantum Supremacy: 53-qubit Sycamore processor completes a specific calculation in 200 seconds that would take classical supercomputers ~10,000 years. First demonstration that quantum computers can outperform classical systems on certain tasks.
Jul 2022	NIST Selects Post-Quantum Standards: After 6 years of global competition, NIST announces winners: Kyber (key encapsulation), Dilithium, SPHINCS+, and FALCON (digital signatures). Cryptocurrency projects now have proven algorithms to adopt.
Aug 2024	NIST Publishes Final PQC Standards: FIPS 203 (ML-KEM), FIPS 204 (ML-DSA), and FIPS 205 (SLH-DSA) officially released. Organizations can implement with confidence. White House mandates federal migration to PQC by 2035.
Dec 2024	Google Willow Achieves Below-Threshold Errors: 105-qubit chip demonstrates exponential error reduction as qubits scale—a critical milestone proving fault-tolerant quantum computing is achievable. Completes benchmark in 5 minutes that would take classical supercomputers 10 septillion years.
Feb 2025	Microsoft Unveils Majorana 1: World’s first topological qubit chip using novel “topoconductor” materials. Claims architecture can scale to 1 million qubits on a single chip. Approach offers inherent error resistance at hardware level.
May 2025	Gidney Paper Slashes CRQC Requirements: Google researcher Craig Gidney publishes analysis showing RSA-2048 can be broken with <1 million noisy qubits in under a week—a 95% reduction from 2019’s 20 million qubit estimate. Game-changing for timeline projections.
Jun 2025	IBM & IonQ Release Aggressive Roadmaps: IBM targets 200 logical qubits by 2029 (Starling) and 1,000+ by early 2030s (Blue Jay). IonQ projects 1,600 logical qubits by 2028 and 80,000 by 2030—potentially exceeding CRQC thresholds.
Nov 2025	IBM Nighthawk & Loon Unveiled: Nighthawk processor (120 qubits) designed for quantum advantage by 2026. Loon experimental processor demonstrates all hardware components needed for fault-tolerant quantum computing. Real-time error decoding achieved.

The “Harvest Now, Decrypt Later” Threat

One of the most insidious aspects of the quantum threat is already active. Nation-state actors and sophisticated adversaries are collecting encrypted data today with the intention of decrypting it once CRQCs become available.

This threat model means that the effective deadline for quantum-safe migration is not Q-Day itself—it’s today. Data encrypted or signed with vulnerable algorithms now will be compromised later, regardless of when protection is added.

Learn more about the Harvest Now, Decrypt Later threat →

What We’re Watching

The timeline to Q-Day depends on several factors that could accelerate or delay arrival:

Expert & Industry Predictions

Q-Day estimates vary widely, but the range is narrowing as hardware matures:

Source	Q-Day Estimate	Basis
Global Risk Institute (2024)	17–34% chance by 2034	Annual expert survey
IBM Roadmap (2025)	Fault-tolerant by 2029	Starling: 200 logical qubits
IonQ Roadmap (2025)	CRQC-capable by 2028	1,600 logical qubits projected
Google Quantum AI	Breaking RSA: 10+ years	Requires millions of physical qubits
PostQuantum.com Analysis (2025)	RSA-2048 broken by 2030	Based on Gidney paper + roadmaps
NIST / White House	Migration complete by 2035	Federal mandate deadline
QRC Assessment	2030–2035	Consensus of industry projections

Key insight: Even optimistic (late) estimates give cryptocurrency only 10–15 years. Given that migration takes 5–7 years and requires governance consensus, there’s little margin for error. Projects not actively preparing are already behind.

Key Indicators to Monitor

These metrics define the gap between current quantum capability and cryptographic threat:

Metric	Current (2025)	Danger Threshold
Logical qubits	~12–50	~1,400 (CRQC achieved)
Error rate	0.001 (improving)	0.00000001 (needed for reliability)
Gate fidelity	99–99.9%	99.99%+ (fault tolerance)
Physical-to-logical qubit ratio	~1,000:1	<100:1 (efficient scaling)
Crypto projects with mainnet PQC	1 (QRL)	Majority of market cap secured

Cryptocurrency Readiness Snapshot

While quantum hardware advances rapidly, cryptocurrency defenses lag significantly behind:

The vast majority of cryptocurrency value remains protected only by quantum-vulnerable ECDSA signatures. As of late 2025, no major cryptocurrency (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Cardano) has deployed post-quantum cryptography on mainnet. Bitcoin has no concrete BIP for PQC adoption. Ethereum’s EIP-7932 remains in discussion. The race between quantum capability and crypto defense is decisively favoring quantum.

Explore the Details

Update Policy

This page is updated monthly and whenever significant milestones occur—major hardware announcements, algorithmic breakthroughs, or cryptocurrency PQC deployments. All data points are sourced from peer-reviewed research, official company announcements, and verified industry reports. If you identify an error or have updated information, please contact us with documentation.